Great article Chris, we are sleep walking into the next conflict. As former US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster put it - Deterrence = Capability x Will. We are pretty limited on capability and - looking at the media - almost zero on will. If we can't deter the CCP then it will be a choice between dishonour and war, and with our ex-politicians showing up to Military parades in Beijing, it looks like we're choosing dishonour.
"If we can't deter the CCP then it will be a choice between dishonour and war"
With due respect to the other Peter below, here is a different view.
The real dishonour is walking away after pretending (consistent with us entering AUKUS) that we will fight for Taiwan. Yet our pretence, is dependent on the USA going all out to defend Taiwan. I do not know if the USA will, but I do know Australia will not lift a finger, if the USA opts not to.
The one question I did not recall Chris you asking the panel, was how successful the USA might be in defending Taiwan, if China took any of the measures your panel described. I think it would be a fare context, for that questions, would be "assume Xi is as crazy persistent in war as Putin".
Yes, "hope is not a strategy", as in life and as in threatening times and war. It is both saddening and deeply troubling to realise that, throughout our short history, too many Australian governments have been blind and timid, and here we go again.
Chris, I sincerely hope (I'm starting to dislike that word), that this article reaches far and wide, and very quickly. As far as strategy goes, this weak excuse for a government needs to get its act together, with all speed. Effective deterrence, quickly, must be the aim.
Great article Chris, we are sleep walking into the next conflict. As former US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster put it - Deterrence = Capability x Will. We are pretty limited on capability and - looking at the media - almost zero on will. If we can't deter the CCP then it will be a choice between dishonour and war, and with our ex-politicians showing up to Military parades in Beijing, it looks like we're choosing dishonour.
"If we can't deter the CCP then it will be a choice between dishonour and war"
With due respect to the other Peter below, here is a different view.
The real dishonour is walking away after pretending (consistent with us entering AUKUS) that we will fight for Taiwan. Yet our pretence, is dependent on the USA going all out to defend Taiwan. I do not know if the USA will, but I do know Australia will not lift a finger, if the USA opts not to.
The one question I did not recall Chris you asking the panel, was how successful the USA might be in defending Taiwan, if China took any of the measures your panel described. I think it would be a fare context, for that questions, would be "assume Xi is as crazy persistent in war as Putin".
Yes, "hope is not a strategy", as in life and as in threatening times and war. It is both saddening and deeply troubling to realise that, throughout our short history, too many Australian governments have been blind and timid, and here we go again.
Chris, I sincerely hope (I'm starting to dislike that word), that this article reaches far and wide, and very quickly. As far as strategy goes, this weak excuse for a government needs to get its act together, with all speed. Effective deterrence, quickly, must be the aim.
China will just have to propagandise another wave of deadly sniffles and Aussies will be under their beds quivering.
I paid the subscription but cannot access your excellent series on Apple apps, is there a way to correct this?